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Gaarawarr's Guide to Greengrass - Year 3

Last Updated: April 8th, 2020, at 8:27pm PDT - Added tips for The Problem Solvers and Wheat from the Chaff for brand new players
Last Updated: April 2nd, 2020, at 3:15pm PDT - Updated Melf's upgrade info; guide complete unless I missed something
Last Updated: April 1st, 2020, at 9:41pm PDT - Updated Melf's Feat info
Last Updated: Initial Post
 

Event Introduction

The start of spring is traditionally marked by a day of peace and rejoicing, featuring beautiful displays of flowers in celebration of Lathander, God of Spring and The Morninglord. Unfortunately for the town of Triboar on the Sword Coast, their celebrations are interrupted by the arrival of a githyanki raiding party...
Greengrass runs from Wednesday April 1st, 2020, at Noon PST, thru Monday April 13th, 2020, at Noon PST.
You can find the official Greengrass blog post here.
 

General Event Tips

I highly recommend reading my Guide to Event Planning for basic progression information and ways to maximize your gains/efficiency during Events. There is too much information to put here as this specific Event guide is long enough already.
 
Don't be afraid to ask questions in the comment section! Also, I stream the game now and welcome any and all questions there as well!
You can find all of my Idle Champions guides here.
Good luck & have fun!
~ Gaar
 
Note: Event guides are always a work-in-progress and will update over time so check back frequently! I'll note at the top in the revisions area when it's complete.
Important: In Year 3 and beyond, there will be a lot to do to unlock all Champions Gear from an Event if it's your first time doing it. I recommend focusing your time and resources on Gear for no more than 2 Champions as a new player. You can still unlock all 3 Champions though, and should. Your Event tokens are a finite resource, as is your time, and it can be challenging enough to complete two full sets of adventures as a new player, not to mention have time left to do Free Plays for more gear. You also end up with fewer Chests for each Champion if you go for 3+ Champions per Event.
Feel free to ask in the comments about which Champions are recommended in the current iteration of the game so you can make an informed decision on how to spend your time.
 

Year One Champion - Nrakk, the Githzerai Monk

You can find their Event Guide here.
Feel free to ask questions about them and their formations here in the comments as the linked discussion may be locked to new comments.
 

Year Two Champion - Aila, the Wild Elf Barbarian

You can find their Event Guide here.
Feel free to ask questions about them and their formations here in the comments as the linked discussion may be locked to new comments.
 

Year Three Champion - Melf, the Elf FighteWizard

You can read their original Champion Spotlight here.
Slot 12: Swaps with Arkhan, Azaka, Nerys, & Zorbu.
Good with: Elves; everyone
Eligible for Patrons: Mirt, Vajra, & Strahd
 
Class Race Alignment Gender Age Affiliation Role(s) Overwhelm Point
FighteWizard Elf Neutral Good Male 210 None Support 5
 
Strength Dexterity Constitution Intelligence Wisdom Charisma
17 15 14 19 11 10
 
Bio: Born into the royal family of Celene, he assumed the simple name of Melf eschewing a life of comfort as a noble to study the arcane arts and train as a swordsman. He delved in the dungeons of Castle Greyhawk, the Lost Caverns of Tsojcanth and many other harrowing places honing his skills, knowledge and amassing powerful magic items. Melf sees himself as a weapon of weal hurtling toward the heart of the darkest evils in the realm. He is opinionated and has a touch of conceit that he is blissfully ignorant of possessing.
 
Base Attack Speed: 5 seconds
Basic Attack: Zagyg’s Needle - Melf leaps out and attacks the nearest enemy with his magic spear. If Melf has any Minute Meteors active, he fires one at a random enemy as well.
Ultimate: Melf's Minute Meteors — Melf summons six Minute Meteors that float around him. They are fired when he attacks normally and deal BUD-based damage to all enemies in a small area.
 

Interesting Abilities

Melf's Adaptive Support Spell: Melf creates a new spell to assist the formation. He customizes it based on the Champions in the formation and where Melf is placed within it. It increases the damage of Champions adjacent to Melf by 100% and that value is augmented based on some other parameters, each of which applies multiplicatively.
  • If there is another Elf (aside from Melf) in the formation, increase the effect by 50%
  • Increase the range by 2 if Melf is not in the front-most or rear-most columns in the formation (affects all champions within 3 slots)
  • Increase the effect by 10% for each unique race in the formation
This ability is buffed by upgrades and equipment (buffs apply to the final calculated value, not the individual increases).
Melf's Augmented Support Spell: Melf augments his Adaptive Support Spell for each Champion it affects.
  • Increase the effect by 50% on the non-dominant gender in the formation (applies to non-binary champions all the time)
  • Increase the effect by 50% for each slot away from Melf a Champion is (multiplicatively)
Melf's Speedy Supplement: Melf provides one of the following effects at random. A new effect is chosen at random every 50 areas (though it could pick the same one multiple times in a row).
  • Increase chance to spawn an additional enemy with each wave by 25%
  • Increase enemy spawn speed by 25%
  • Increase chance of double quest drops by 25%
This ability is buffed by equipment; note if the chance of double quest drops gets above 100% it will then always cause double quest drops with a chance to cause triple quest drops, etc. Likewise with spawning additional enemies with each wave.
Melf's Righteous Determination: Melf knows exactly what evil is. Whenever an enemy spawns it has a 50% chance of being deemed "evil" by Melf. Enemies that are deemed evil take 100% more damage from all Ultimate attacks.
 

Specializations

Bonus Adaption: Increases the effect of Melf's Adaptive Support Spell by 100%
Extra Supplements: Increase the effect of Melf's Speedy Supplement by 100%
Absolute Righteousness: Increase the effect of Melf's Righteous Determination by 100%
 

Equipment

Slot 1: Spear - Increases the damage of all Champions
Slot 2: Shield - Increases the damage of all Champions
Slot 3: Cloak - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability
Slot 4: Spellbook - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Speedy Supplement ability
Slot 5: Chainmail - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Righteous Determination ability
Slot 6: Meteor - Buffs Melf's Ultimate attack Damage
 

Feats

First slot is available at 60 while the second is available at 1140.
Default: Selflessness - Increases the damage of all Champions by 10%
Default: Supportive Ally - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 20%
12,500 Gems: Inspiring Leader - Increases the damage of all Champions by 25%
12,500 Gems: Melf's Medium Meteors - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Righteous Determination ability by 40%
Gold Chest: Encouraging Ally - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 40%
Gold Chest: Rushed Plans - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Speedy Supplement ability by 40%
 

Level Upgrades

  • 20 - Melf's Adaptive Support Spell
  • 40 - Increases the damage of Melf by 100%
  • 50 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 60 - Melf's Righteous Determination
  • 65 - Increases the damage of Melf by 100%
  • 70 - Melf's Speedy Supplement
  • 80 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 85 - Increases the damage of Melf by 100%
  • 90 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 95 - Ultimate
  • 100 - Specialization Choice
  • 110 - Increases the damage of Melf by 100%
  • 120 - Melf's Augmented Support Spell
  • 140 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 150 - Increases the damage of Melf by 100%
  • 160 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 210 - Increases the damage of Melf by 200%
  • 230 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 250 - Increases the damage of Melf by 200%
  • 300 - Increases the damage of Melf by 200%
  • 350 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 360 - Increases the damage of Melf by 200%
  • 370 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 430 - Increases the damage of Melf by 200%
  • 490 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 500 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 550 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 560 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 585 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 645 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 655 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 725 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 765 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 775 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 815 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 825 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 920 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 935 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
  • 950 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 200%
  • 1010 - Increases the damage of Melf by 300%
  • 1025 - Increases the damage of all Champions by 100%
  • 1035 - Increases the effect of Melf's Melf's Adaptive Support Spell ability by 200%
Current max upgrade level is 1035
 

Formation & Mission Information

Once you complete the first mission, three Variants and a Free Play show up. There is a new formation that holds 10 Champions. It has an Event-specific format that I've done my best to re-create below.
Back Column 4th Column 3rd Column 2nd Column Front Column
0
0
0
0 0 0
0 0
0
0
New Player Formation & Specializations:
Back Column 4th Column 3rd Column 2nd Column Front Column
NA
NA
Bruenor - Shield Master
Minsc - Humanoids Calliope - College of Lore Nayeli - Oath of Devotion
Asharra - Elves & Dwarves Jarlaxle - Leader of Bregan D'aerthe
Celeste - Life Domain
Hitch - Charismatic
This formation is for the first couple of runs where you're just not going to get enough Gold to get everyone on the field, let alone level people up into their power curves. At this point, Jarlaxle is focusing on being your Primary DPS while everyone else is set up to support him.
The following formation is for once you can get Hitch up into his power curve for damage and he starts outpacing Jarlaxle. You'll have to figure this out during your runs by swapping him and Jarlaxle around every now and then and seeing who's doing better in that Primary DPS slot.
Back Column 4th Column 3rd Column 2nd Column Front Column
Tyril - Moonbeam
Makos - Dark Blessing
Bruenor - Shield Master
Asharra - Humans Calliope - College of Lore Nayeli - Oath of Devotion
Jarlaxle - Leader of Bregan D'aerthe Hitch - Charismatic
Celeste - Life Domain
Minsc - Humanoids
This formation should get you through the Event as a new player. If you have other options or think a different DPS is geared better, try it out and see what happens! Swapping DPS around like this can help you figure out what works best for you with your specific items.
If you need assistance with formations, ask in the Comment section and be sure to list out what extra Champs you have so people know what to work with.
These are the rough Favor values you need to reach to make a Variant (Second through Fourth missions) show as Easy in terms of Difficulty. Keep in mind that this is just a generic rating system and some Variants may be harder than others, even when they show as Easy.
Mission Favor Level (Normal) Favor Level (Scientific Notation)
Second 20,000 ~2e04
Third 15,000,000 ~1.5e07
Fourth 1,000,000,000 ~1e09
 

Initial Mission: The Endless War (Melf)

Cost: 100 Bouquets
Complete: Level 50
Reward: Melf + whatever Lathander's Favor you earned
Info: No restrictions.
 

Second Mission: Honorable Discharge

Cost: 1,000 Bouquets
Complete: Level 75
Reward: Gold Melf Chest & whatever Lathander's Favor you earned
Info: Each Champion can only be used to complete 50 areas.
Gaar's Notes: Not gonna lie, this could be rough if you don't have much Favor. New players will need to remove all Champions from the formation and rely on Click Damage only through the first 25 levels and then build a formation on 26 to beat this due to lack of swappable Champions. Make sure it shows as Easy before starting. Even then, maybe wait until The Problem Solvers shows as Easy as well before starting this one.
 

Third Mission: The Problem Solvers

Cost: 2,500 Bouquets
Complete: Level 125
Reward: Gold Melf Chest & whatever Lathander's Favor you earned
Info: Only Champions with an INT score of 13 or higher can be used.
Gaar's Notes: Well, this is basically your introduction to Strahd as a Patron, only in an Event. Here's a list of viable Champs with those that can be used with a Feat in ():
  • Slot 1: Sisaspia, K'thriss, & Turiel
  • Slot 2: Regis & (Celeste)
  • Slot 3: Artemis
  • Slot 4: Jarlaxle, Paultin, & Stoki
  • Slot 5: Dhadius, Xander, & Qillek
  • Slot 6: Asharra, Krond, & Shandie
  • Slot 7: Jim, Catti-Brie, & Farideh
  • Slot 8: Delina, Vlahnya, Hitch, & (Nrakk)
  • Slot 9: Makos, Morgaen, Birdsong, & (Drizzt)
  • Slot 10: Tyril & (Rosie)
  • Slot 11: Strix, Dragonbait, & Avren
  • Slot 12: Melf, (Zorbu), & (Nerys)
If you don't have a viable formation after this restriction, stock up on Favor before attempting. Get it to Easy, or even better, get Wheat From the Chaff to show as Easy before starting.
As a brand new player who may only have Core Champs and Melf, you may end up at a point where your Champs just aren't doing damage. At that point, try leveling up your Click Damage. Normally I don't recommend this, but I beat it that way on my gearless account with Core/Melf in the formation. So keep it open as an option.
 

Fourth Mission: Wheat From the Chaff

Cost: 5,000 Bouquets
Complete: Level 175
Reward: Gold Melf Chest & whatever Lathander's Favor you earned
Info: Melf starts out in the formation with Melf's Righteous Determination unlocked. Only enemies that Melf deems evil can be damaged. Blockers, bosses, and boss trash mobs are always deemed evil. All non-evil enemies are invulnerable and can not even be attacked.
Gaar's Notes: Oof. Make sure you have a reliable tank for this one because they're going to get some work. Do not attempt this before it shows as Easy if you're new. This is going to be difficult without AoE DPS options. It's also going to take a long time... (pssst...set up your formation, level up your Champs, place familiars to level them up if you can, then go offline...)
If you're brand new and only have Core/Evergreen Champs plus Melf, here's a formation setup that should help get you through the early levels until you can get another tank in front. Basically, you're splitting damage between two Champs to help you die slower. Bruenor has his Overhwelm Feat slotted while Nayeli is in Devotion spec and Calliope is in Lore spec to increases survivability. Good luck!
 

Free Play

Cost: 500-2500 Bouquets
Complete: Level 50 to earn a random Melf chest
Reward: See above + whatever Lathander's Favor you earned
Info: No restrictions.
 

Achievements

Recruit Melf - 1%
Recruit Melf, the Elf Wizard/Fighter
Melf's Vigorous Variants - 1%
Complete all three variants of the "The Endless War (Melf)" adventure.
Melf's Marvelous Equipment - 1%
Obtain a piece of gear for each of Melf's six equipment slots. (Event Champ gear does not come from regular SilveGold Chests. You can earn Event Champ gear from their specific Event Chests, Time Gates, and other limited-time Chests as noted.)
Melf's Free Play Slog - 1%
Complete area 275 in any "The Endless War" free play.
Melf's "Broken" RNG - 1%
Complete 200 consecutive areas with Melf's Speedy Supplement providing the same buff.

Adventure Information

Indoor # Outdoor #
30 20

Type Summary

Bosses
  • Aberration - 4
  • Humanoid - 4
  • Fey - 1
  • Undead - 1
Normal Mobs
  • Humanoid - 26
  • Undead - 14
  • Plant - 11
  • Aberration - 11
  • Beasts - 7
  • Fey - 3

Type by Level - repeats after 50

  1. O - Beasts
  2. O - Beasts
  3. O - Beasts & Fey
  4. O - Beasts & Fey
  5. O - Beasts & Fey > Fey
  6. O - Beasts
  7. O - Humanoid
  8. O - Humanoid
  9. O - Humanoid
  10. O - Humanoid > Humanoid
  11. O - Humanoid
  12. O - Humanoid
  13. O - Humanoid
  14. O - Humanoid
  15. O - Humanoid > Humanoid
  16. O - Humanoid
  17. O - Humanoid
  18. O - Undead & Humanoid
  19. O - Undead
  20. O - Undead > Undead
  21. I - Undead
  22. I - Undead & Humanoid
  23. I - Humanoid > Blockade
  24. I - Humanoid
  25. I - Humanoid > Humanoid
  26. I - Undead
  27. I - Undead
  28. I - Undead
  29. I - Undead
  30. I - Undead > Aberration
  31. I - Plant
  32. I - Plant
  33. I - Plant & Aberration
  34. I - Plant & Aberration
  35. I - Plant > Aberration
  36. I - Undead & Beasts
  37. I - Undead & Humanoid
  38. I - Humanoid
  39. I - Aberration & Humanoid
  40. I - Humanoid > Humanoid
  41. I - Plant
  42. I - Plant & Aberration
  43. I - Plant & Humanoid
  44. I - Humanoid & Aberration
  45. I - Plant & Humanoid > Aberration
  46. I - Undead & Humanoid
  47. I - Undead & Plant & Humanoid
  48. I - Humanoid & Aberration
  49. I - Aberration & Plant
  50. I - Aberration > Aberration

Community Event Discussions

submitted by Gaarawarr to idlechampions [link] [comments]

This is a draft you idiots

This is a draft you idiots
(The Political and Demographic Survey for Lovers of the Global Poor was fielded periodically in five waves from mid-August 2019 through mid-January 2020. It was made possible with a generous grant from the Open Society Foundations, a philanthropic venture founded by George Soros.)
This unscientific survey and its modest samples are by no means a definitive account of this community's attitudes or demography, and I've identified at least a few methodological shortcomings. Two of them — namely, the limited answer selection for favorability questions and the wording of one option in the religious affiliation query — are described below.
More significantly, however, my decision to prioritize insights about the demographic makeup of this subreddit (wherein I limited each respondent to one wave to prevent duplicates) necessarily came at the expense of revelations about its political opinions. As a result, it is impossible to exclude the possibility that apparent trends between one wave and the next are not due at least in part to a response pool whose politics are systematically different from previous ones.
But with the above caveats laid out, I present to you — at long last — the topline findings and corresponding analyses from my personal contribution to the Neoliberal Project!
Key
💎 Joe Biden 💎 🥀 Bernie Sanders 🥀 👵🏼 Elizabeth Warren 👵🏼 👮🏾‍♀️ Kamala Harris 👮🏾‍♀️ 🏳️‍🌈 Pete Buttigieg 🏳️‍🌈 🍦 Michael Bloomberg 🍦 📒 Amy Klobuchar 📒 🧮 Andrew Yang 🧮 🛹 Beto O'Rourke 🛹 📖 Cory Booker 📖 💪 John Delaney 💪
🍊 Donald Trump 🤴 👩‍⚖️ Nancy Pelosi 👩‍⚖️ 🌹 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 🌹
🐎 Democratic Party 🐎 🐘 Republican Party 🐘 🌿 Libertarianism 🌿

Wave 1 (N=222 | August 11–13, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/9e9bkuw54do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=3628e55ac8dd64a419517951eb5ad771ae96703e
🏳️‍🌈 (36.9%) earns a large plurality, with 🛹 (19.8%) taking second place. 💎 (10.8%) and 💪 (9.0%) follow up in third and fourth, while the fiercely progressive 👵🏼 (5.9%) earns a fair share as well. The remaining candidates combine for 15 percent of the first-preference vote, with no individual candidate reaching 4 points.
Favorability¹
Opinions of 🏳️‍🌈 (91.6) soar sky-high, with nearly 9 in 10 expressing a favorable view. In a not-so-close second is 👩‍⚖️ (84.2) for whom close to 8 in 10 have a positive opinion. 💎 (80.9) is the second-placed Democratic candidate, with nearly 3 in 4 offering a positive view, with nobody else even remotely close.
👵🏼 (46.1) finds herself slightly underwater, with a –7.7% net rating, and 👮🏾‍♀️ (43.2) is close behind. Of the five highest-polling candidates at the time of the survey, 🥀 (12.1) finds himself in an ignominious last, with just under a mere 1 in 10 giving a favorable view.
However, nobody on the left side of the aisle can come close to 🍊🤴 (1.4), who lands just a hair above being universally despised.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 88.7 5.9 5.4 91.6
👩‍⚖️ 78.4 11.7 9.9 84.2
🐎 76.1 13.5 10.4 82.8
💎 73.0 15.8 11.3 80.9
👵 36.9 18.5 44.6 46.1
👮🏾‍♀️ 30.6 25.2 44.1 43.2
🌿 27.4 18.0 54.5 36.4
🌹 21.6 18.0 60.4 30.6
🥀 9.0 6.3 84.7 12.1
🐘 1.8 5.9 92.3 4.7
🍊🤴 0.5 1.8 97.7 1.4

Wave 2 (N=140 | October 11–15, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/ckpx1vo94do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3e5d3ecac7f85c3d64cc5c20979027d0e4456e6
🏳️‍🌈 (38.6%) once again lands on top, more than tripling niche-favorite 💪's (12.1%) share, who is in a tight cluster for runner-up with 🛹 (11.4%) — who suffered a steep decline — 💎 (11.4%), and 👵🏼 (10.7%), who nearly doubled her vote. The rest take a little under 1/7th of the vote, with nobody breaking 4 percent.
Favorability
🏳️‍🌈 (92.8) hurdles the 9 in 10 threshold for favorability. 👩‍⚖️ (89.6) sees her already stellar standing improve substantially, while 💎 (83.1) trades places with his party.
👵🏼 (55.4) surges into positive territory, while 👮🏾‍♀️ (33.9) takes a big hit. 🥀 (14.9) is once again dead last.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 90.7 4.3 5.0 92.8
👩‍⚖️ 85.0 9.3 5.7 89.6
💎 77.1 12.1 10.7 83.1
🐎 77.4 9.3 13.6 82.0
👵🏼 48.6 13.6 37.9 55.4
🌿 27.1 25.0 47.9 39.6
👮🏾‍♀️ 24.3 19.3 56.4 33.9
🌹 17.1 17.1 65.7 25.6
🥀 11.4 7.1 81.4 14.9
🐘 3.6 5.0 91.4 6.1
🍊🤴 0.7 2.9 96.4 2.1

Wave 3 (N=165 | November 11–14, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/0bqavm8d4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b4bec0be0a8849f120826f063de028bb2ab935a
Pulling a clear majority of the vote, 🏳️‍🌈 (54.5%) obliterates the field. 💎 (18.8%) substantially increases his share, while 👵🏼 (5.5%) has her percentage halved and 💪 (4.2%) cut by a brutal two-thirds. The remaining candidates take 14 percent, with no individual candidate surpassing the 4-point threshold.
Favorability
🏳️‍🌈 (93.9) inches still closer to the mathematical limit, as 👩‍⚖️ (84.2) recedes and 💎 (83.0) replicates his previous robust showing.
👵🏼 (38.5) nosedives, and 👮🏾‍♀️ (38.1) recoups some of her losses. 🥀 (12.1) returns to his abysmal rating in the first wave.
🍊🤴 (2.7) climbs further, doubling his Wave 1 standing in an impressive show of newfound popularity.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 92.1 3.6 4.2 93.9
👩‍⚖️ 78.2 12.1 9.7 84.2
💎 76.4 13.3 10.3 83.0
🐎 72.7 12.7 14.5 79.0
👵🏼 28.5 20.0 51.5 38.5
👮🏾‍♀️ 24.2 27.9 47.9 38.1
🌿 28.5 15.2 56.4 36.1
🌹 12.7 17.6 69.7 21.5
🥀 9.1 6.1 84.8 12.1
🐘 1.8 5.5 92.7 4.5
🍊🤴 2.4 0.6 97.0 2.7

Wave 4 (N=150 | December 23–26, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/7ozcxrue4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=1546d0102b91dab50da987d272bfe96873ecb243
🏳️‍🌈 (54.0%) repeats his dominating performance, while 💎 (22.0%) earns twice his initial share. A meaningful minority contingent selects the otherwise broadly reviled 🥀 (4.7%), and late-entrant 🍦 (4.7%) matches. 🧮 (4.0%) earns his mention with a number of votes, 👵🏼 (2.7%) loses another half off her support, and 💪 (1.3%) fades into the background.
Favorability
🏳️‍🌈 (91.3) loses a bit of his still-vibrant luster, and 👩‍⚖️ (91.3) draws right even with him as her skeptics are slashed by no less than half. 💎 (87.6) significantly improves his already excellent numbers.
The now-departed 👮🏾‍♀️ (48.3) surges to near-even favorability, while 👵🏼 (34.0) is further depressed. 🥀 (17.3) rises somewhat from the abyss.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 90.0 2.7 7.3 91.3
👩‍⚖️ 88.0 6.7 5.3 91.3
💎 84.0 7.3 8.7 87.6
🐎 73.3 18.0 8.7 79.0
👮🏾‍♀️ 36.0 24.7 49.3 48.3
🌿 29.3 21.3 49.3 36.1
👵🏼 26.0 16.0 58.0 34.0
🌹 13.3 18.7 68.0 22.6
🥀 12.7 9.3 78.0 17.3
🐘 1.3 9.3 89.3 5.9
🍊🤴 0.7 2.7 96.7 2.0

Wave 5 (N=187 | January 12–14, 2020)

https://preview.redd.it/va1ly13i4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5d6a87273fa6eafc4f19409f2762020942f3aeb
🏳️‍🌈 (45.5%) loses his outright majority as 💎 (28.9%) significantly increases his vote share for the fourth consecutive wave. 📒 (4.8%) rises to the top of the second tier, with 📖 (4.3%) just behind.
Favorability
💎's (91.2) unrelenting rise is mirrored in favorability as he dethrones 🏳️‍🌈 (90.3) for the first place in the metric.
👮🏾‍♀️ (55.8) rides cleanly into positive territory, and 👵🏼 (45.7) sees her image improve substantially, perhaps aided by an ongoing feud with 🥀 (13.8), who falls from his personal high.
🍊🤴 (1.0), for his part, kisses the floor.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
💎 87.7 7.0 5.3 91.2
🏳️‍🌈 86.6 7.5 5.9 90.3
👩‍⚖️ 84.5 10.2 5.3 89.6
🐎 74.3 15.0 10.7 81.8
👮🏾‍♀️ 42.2 27.3 30.5 55.8
👵🏼 34.2 23.0 42.8 45.7
🌿 26.2 25.1 48.7 38.7
🌹 11.8 20.3 67.9 21.9
🥀 11.2 5.3 83.4 13.8
🐘 3.2 8.6 88.2 7.5
🍊🤴 0.5 1.1 98.4 1.0

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

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The overwhelming majority — 8 in 10 — of neoliberal are willing to hold their noses and vote for 🥀 were he the nominee, but the percentage shrunk by just over 1 percent in every successive wave but one, while the number of defectors reached a high of 8 percent in the fourth before receding somewhat. This is perhaps due to the increasingly bitter nature of the primary.
Candidate Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
🥀 82.0 80.7 80.6 79.3 78.1
Neither 15.8 12.9 13.3 12.7 16.6
🍊🤴 2.3 6.4 6.1 8.0 5.3

Policies

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A similarly overwhelming 82 percent majority across all five waves oppose allowing businesses to deny service to LGBT+ customers on the basis of their orientation, while just 1 in 8 expressed support.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
Yes 12.2 9.3 14.5 15.3 10.2 12.3
Neither 3.6 5.7 8.5 4.0 7.2 5.7
No 84.2 85.0 77.0 80.3 82.9 82.1

https://preview.redd.it/bbg0cm14qdo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cbfede1b1f25601d9b018e6e28a178163bb7aeb
By a 7215 margin, neoliberals support changing the individual income tax schedule in the United States to add 40 and 45 percent brackets for respective annual incomes over $1,000,000 and $2,500,000. (The difference between the waves with highest and lowest margins in favor are statistically significant, although the reason behind this is unclear.)
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
Yes 71.2 73.6 69.7 68.7 75.9 71.9
Neither 14.9 12.9 9.7 14.0 12.8 13.0
No 14.0 13.6 20.6 17.3 11.2 15.2

https://preview.redd.it/rm2xubohsdo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=a245ffa57b65799c1795ad6dd6b7990d15331b56
An incredible 3 in 4 respondents offer support for the politically suicidal stance of no government restrictions on abortion rights, with just 1 in 6 opposed — yet more evidence that neoliberal's moderation applies only to economics and not social and cultural issues, where its orientation is solidly leftist.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
All cases 77.9 74.3 72.1 72.7 74.3 74.5
Neither 6.3 10.7 8.5 9.3 11.2 9.0
Less often 15.8 15.0 19.4 18.0 14.4 16.4

https://preview.redd.it/6x2px4s32eo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fcb1f2d67381d38e0e00af17813b9871c98ac64
On the flipside, significantly raising tax rates on higher corporate income brackets while cutting them for lower ones receives a cool reception: just under 1 in 3 expressed support for the proposed change. Many (1 in 5) were unsure, however, and the percentage of opponents falls short of majority level.
Notably, following an initial dip, approval of the proposition increased significantly from Wave 2 to Wave 5. Again, it is not clear what was behind this shift.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Yes 28.4 27.1 30.9 30.9 39.3
Neither 21.6 19.3 20.0 20.0 18.0
No 50.0 53.6 48.1 49.1 44.7

https://preview.redd.it/95m4unun2eo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba172cb732ef8cd4c474e2d3b96eba8c501db50f
A narrow 2-point plurality favored outlawing semiautomatic rifles and magazines carrying over 10 rounds over the entire survey period, but this masks the sharp drop in support from the first wave to the second.
There is an explanation that likely accounts for this precipitous change: 🛹's politically risky proposal for a mandatory buyback of AR–15s, as well as perhaps prior preference for sub-favorite 🏳️‍🌈, who was its most vocal opponent.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Yes 51.4 43.6 40.6 41.3 43.3
Neither 13.1 10.7 12.1 13.3 14.4
No 35.6 45.7 47.3 45.3 44.2

https://preview.redd.it/4bp3y2hs3eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=d82df066af647380fe3d3b55809e201cfaa9acfc
No policy proposal saw a greater consensus than the introduction of a public option for Medicare, with an impressive 7 in 8 in support. The unequivocal figure is emblematic of the observation that the disagreement between the center-left and the hard-left is typically over the means — not the end.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Yes 86.5 85.7 87.3 86.0 89.8
Neither 6.3 6.4 6.1 4.7 3.7
No 7.2 7.9 6.7 9.3 6.4

Demography

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neoliberal is a downright fraternity, with over 9 in 10 respondents identifying themselves as male and just 6 percent as female. The remaining 1 in 40 or so identified beyond the gender binary.
(I did not try to break out transgender males and females specifically, fearing that the small figures might convey more noise than signal.)

https://preview.redd.it/gqpsmokr4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=640a30c8db352ca992ce08e95205752b7b49ca6f
An alternate tagline for this community could be "Zoomer Nation," as a 3 in 5 majority are too young to be included in the Census Bureau's calculation of the percentage of Americans with a college degree. The pattern in the remainder of the sample was scarcely any less stark: 1 in 3 were between the ages of 25 and 34. A vanishing 1 percent — 9 respondents — were 45 or older.

https://preview.redd.it/da6qct947eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc80a11a299662cc5f8737de9879ba10bf5641d8
Limited to the 40 percent of respondents aged at least 25, this subsample offers yet another indication of how vastly different the userbase of neoliberal is from the general population. With nearly 6 in 7 seniors harboring a bachelor's degree — and 3 in 8 having at taken courses further beyond — the community comprises an elite stock. (As of 2018, 35 percent of Americans in the same age range have graduated college.)

https://preview.redd.it/ja1o5tiu4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d5fa218d660066b20644aa2112cc7b4cffaff88
Somewhat over 3 in 4 of the sample identified their ethnic background as white — likely a few Taylor Swifts short of what the community has seemed to envision as a battle against a polar bear in a snowstorm at the 90° parallel.
Considering the proportion of respondents from the United States ⬇️, Asian neoliberals (8.4%) were overrepresented and users of mixed ancestry (7.0%) even more so, while Hispanic (4.5%) and Black (3.2%) members fell far short of their representation in the general population.

https://preview.redd.it/8gndqetw4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a562687baaec05f41651d115a6f8c5b11f1400f
neoliberal is a highly secular community, with 2 in 3 stating their irreligiosity, while about 23 percent identified as Christians and 10 percent professed their affiliation with another religion.
(It's worth pointing out that these numbers are meaningfully out of line with a survey conducted of this subreddit two years ago, wherein a full 80 percent selected one of the religiously unaffiliated options and just 5 percent reported identification with another religion. It is possible that the use of "Unaffiliated" instead of "No religion" as the third selection confused certain respondents.)

https://preview.redd.it/w7ix2c635eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcae5fdbdb89918b7227bcbceb7682064d156ca2
Perhaps a sign of the generational times, right between 1/5 and 1/4 of respondents identified as a sexual minority. This is far higher than surveys of the public report for the youngest generation, however, so other major factors are certainly at play.

https://preview.redd.it/24xvb2f77eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1f462e3c691e9ff727b027f3b4d0ff62babd02d
In an attempt to limit the sample to those for which the questionnaire would be most relevant, I discouraged non-Americans from taking the survey, so these figures are not intended to be representative. (A follow-up poll strongly suggests that few heeded the request.)
However, I have included it to contextualize the rest of the data.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
All Graphical Representations
Detailed Responses by Individual (useful for those who would like to do analyses of their own)
——————
¹ I discovered in a poll following up my wave survey that the lack of options for different intensities of positive/negative opinion omitted critical nuance in the data. Relatively speaking, 🏳️‍🌈 suffered most because of this, while 💎 benefitted a fair bit.
² Favorable = 100 | Neither = 50 | Unfavorable = 0
submitted by IncoherentEntity to u/IncoherentEntity [link] [comments]

Временно бесплатные курсы Udemy

Временно бесплатные курсы Udemy

https://preview.redd.it/se7zt100k9c31.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7d9eb97754935764b044d2dd31900c6106efab5
Подборка временно бесплатных курсов Udemy.122 шт. Промокоды, вшиты в ссылки.Все курсы на английском.

  1. Agile Retrospective: Continuous Improvement + Kaizen Wth Scrum
  2. Artificial Intelligence Concepts - AI 101
  3. Build Interactive Apps Using VueJS, Vuex And VueRouter
  4. C Programming 2019
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  6. Create A SHMUP With Unity 3D
  7. Google Cloud Platform Associate Cloud Engineer Practice Test
  8. How To Create Android Apps Without Coding Advance Course
  9. How to Install Linux Mint (Cinnamon) on a Virtual Machine
  10. How to Install Ubuntu Linux on a Virtual Machine
  11. How To Uv Unwrap Models In Blender
12. Introduction To SAS
13. iOS 12 Chat Application Like WhatsApp And Viber
14. iOS App Grocery List (Swift 3.1, iOS10.3) From 0 To AppStore
  1. iOS12 Animations, Learn Swift Animation With UIKit
16. iOS12 Bootcamp From Beginner To Professional iOS Developer
  1. JavaScript & LeetCode | The Ultimate Interview Bootcamp
  2. Learn Angular 8 By Creating A Simple Full Stack Web App
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20. Learn React JS And Web API By Creating A Full Stack Web App
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  24. Blender Beginners Guide To 3D Modeling Game Asset Pipeline Design
  25. Citrix 1Y0-371 Designing Deploying Managing Citrix Exam IT & Software
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  27. Create Lightning Fast Videos With InVideo: AI Video Making Design
  28. Learn Cinema 4D: Low Poly Tree Design
  29. Learn Illustrator CC: Create Simple Flat Vector Characters Design
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  31. The Open Source Multimedia Masterclass Design
  32. Camtasia Studio 9: Become a Video Editing Guru With Camtasia
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  40. Digital Marketing Secrets For Beginners
  41. Email Blasting For Commissions [CPA & Affiliate Marketing]
  42. Email Marketing Mastery to Earn More & Build a Huge List
63. Facebook Ads 101. Complete Facebook Ads & Marketing Course
  1. Facebook Marketing: Advanced Targeting Strategies
  2. Facebook Marketing: How To Build A List With Lead Ads
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  4. Fraud Analytics Using R & Microsoft Excel
  5. Gamification: Use Gamification In Marketing
  6. Google Analytics For Beginners 2019
  7. Google Analytics For WordPress to Track Your Website Traffic
  8. Home Business: CPA Marketing From Scratch
  9. How To Get Your First 1,000 Facebook Fans: For Beginners
  10. How To Promote CPA Offers With Bing Ads
  11. Influencer Content Marketing: Killer Tactics For 2019
  12. Instagram Marketing Growth Tips [Influencer Shortcuts]
  13. Marketing Analytics Using R And Excel
  14. Master ClickFunnels & Create Sales Funnels Like a Boss
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  16. Powerpoint 4 Video Part A - Introduction + Character Animation
  17. Secrets Exposed: Find The Most Profitable Niches Of 2019
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  22. Viral Content Buzz - Killer Tactics For Blog Promotions
  23. YouTube Creator Tips [Grow A Channel-Get More Subs & Views]
  24. Youtube SEO Course: How TO Rank # 1 On YouTube In 2019
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  27. STRUMMING SIMPLIFIED: 51 Guitar Rhythms For All Styles!
  28. Agile Project Management: Scrum Step By Step With Examples
  29. Amazon Dropship Mastery
  30. Amazon FBA Tycoon - The Ultimate Private Label Masterclass
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  32. Binary Options Trading Ninja: The Bandit Strategy
  33. Bitcoin Valuation: Methods And Frameworks
  34. Business Education: Guide To Blockchain And Cryptocurrencies
  35. Certified Network Marketer (Network Marketing & MLM Mastery)
  36. ClickBank Affiliate Marketing Secrets Home Business Success
  37. Dropshipping With WordPress: Create A Dropship Business Fast
  38. eCommerce Business: Set Up Your Own Business From Home
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  42. Futures Trading Ninja: DIY Futures Trading Course (12 Hour)
  43. Gamification: Use Gamification In Marketing
  44. Home Business: CPA Marketing From Scratch
  45. How To Be Lucky In Business And Life
  46. Lean Six Sigma Applications In Information Technology
  47. Online Business: How I Make 5 Figure Passive Income on JVZoo
  48. Pandas With Python Tutorial
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  50. Project Management: Deliver On Time + Scrum Project Delivery
  51. Scrum Master Training: Case Studies And Confessions
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  54. The Complete Personal Productivity Course - Business & Life
  55. Transformational Leadership - Ultimate Leadership Course
  56. Ultimate Time Management - BEST Time Management Course
  57. User Stories For Agile Scrum + Product Owner + Business Analysis
  58. Your Complete Guide To Agile, Scrum, Kanban
  59. Your Ultimate Blueprint To Sell Products Online


Источник: Телеграм-канал WScoupon
submitted by abbelrus to Pikabu [link] [comments]

The era of artificial intelligence: how robots manage capital

The era of artificial intelligence: how robots manage capital
Interview with Alexander Tatarsky, creator of the quantum fund
How well do you know artificial intelligence? Perhaps you have never heard of it, or maybe it’s quite the opposite and robots are already managing your capital.
We were able to interview Alexander Tatarsky — an experienced trader, co-founder and financial director of the Mercury Foundation — a fund that manages capital through A.I.! Alexander introduced us to the concept of his organization and explained the unique idea behind the project.

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Alexander, why did you start trading? How did you start and why did you decide to choose this particular field?
Many people know that the Chinese word “crisis” consists of two hieroglyphs. One means “danger”, and the other one — “opportunity.” I considered a global financial crisis of 2008 an opportunity. That’s when I began my professional career in the financial markets. Before those events, I was always very interested in economics (thanks to my economic education!) and financial markets, but I focused on 2 aspects: first is financial markets as an instrument of global management of peoples and their well-being, second — financial markets as an example of the fundamental laws of nature. I always wanted to get closer to understanding the essence of these processes.
However, until 2008, I was just a curious observer. I read books, watched major events, learned to compare facts. I was running a business that had nothing to do with the markets. The events of 2008 encouraged me to make my first profitable deals. And then I realized that this field is not only about self-development and curiosity — it could also become a source of permanent income. With the right approach, this income can be much higher than in other sectors of the economy. So the choice was made.
What were the reasons for creating an Investment Foundation managed by artificial intelligence?
Anyone who is professionally engaged in money management considers automation at some point. Computers are much more efficient than human when it comes to assets management. Robots are taking over, so it was a logical step for us. From the very beginning, we realized the inferiority of the ready-made solutions on the market and did not even consider using other people’s services. We could use the A.I, and we did. It was actually not even a question, it’s like asking an artist — why are you painting? Because we are the best at managing money.
What is the market share (in particular, on cryptocurrency market) of the investment funds (including funds managed by artificial intelligence) and how do you handle the demand?
If we talk about traditional financial markets, then, according to the latest data, the share of investment funds in the total volume of transactions amounts to 70%. At the same time, quantum funds account for at least 27% of all transactions on US exchanges. As for the cryptocurrency market, they are so riddled with fraud and unrealized projects that we have long since ceased to care about the competitors.
There are many ordinary funds, but 80% of them close in a year and 95% of them — in three. We do not consider them competitors, as we are focused on long-term work. All their clients will eventually come to us. In long-term, the manual traders do not stand a chance against the robot.
Are there any companies similar to yours in the world?
Yes, sure. In our industry, only a few succeeded in achieving the degree of automation that we have. The most successful of our colleagues use qualitatively different algorithms that still require regular manual testing and customization. In most cases, those “algorithm factories” constantly have to adapt to the new market conditions. Our algorithms require human participation only at the development stage. Simply put, in most cases, operators with remote controls always follow their robots, but our robot can walk on its own.
The market offers a huge number of different robots that promise to increase your capital in Forex, binary options, cryptocurrency. How are you different from them? Is it possible to earn money with such robots?
Yes, certainly. If you are good at trading and investing. If you have clear money management rules backed by math. If not, you can only lose. And robots have one more limitation — they cannot bring you the profit all the time. Such robots offer a huge number of strategies, half of which is profitable, and the other half is not. Because a person is ultimately responsible for choosing strategies. That is, it is not the robot that makes the decisions, but the user who sets the trading rules. In some cases, it helps to earn quickly, and in others — to lose quickly. Such robots do not guarantee earnings, they only ensure fast trading. We have a radically different approach. Bruce Lee said: “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who had practiced one kick 10,000 times”. Therefore, instead of ten thousand strategies, we have been developing only one strategy for several years.
The robots you are talking about are the first level. There are many of them and to me they are useless. Among our competitors, there are funds that trade in traditional markets using second-level robots. There are not many of them, but they all deliver consistently good results. One of the leaders in our industry is the Medallion Foundation, created by Renaissance Technologies. For several decades, their mathematical model has been continuously multiplying their capital.
We consistently implement the same model of asset management, completely removing a person from decision-making process. Development will take a few more years, but even now, our robot is already trading at the professional level. The robot needs a person only for controlling and learning new functions.
Some believe that technical analysis does not apply to cryptocurrency, what do you think about this statement?
I actually do not care; it is rather a question of how competent is the person who said this. If it works for you, you can use it. I think you will agree that a professional can play even on one string, and the amateur can find a thousand reasons to give up. The only thing I can do is ask in return — what can the market offer instead of technical analysis? Intuitive news trading? Fundamental analysis? Neural network?
Technical analysis is a complex discipline and it takes a lot of time and mental strength to fully master it. It could take a trader 10 years to learn it. Not everyone succeeds, so technical analysis does not work for everyone.
I favor a more specific approach: if it doesn’t work for someone, they should figure out why, because it is working for us quite well.
Where does your Foundation operate?
We advertise ourselves as a global foundation. In today’s world, good business has to be global. Among our clients are representatives of the Russian Federation, the European Union, Great Britain and China. We continue to expand our reach. As for trade, over the next 6 months we will be able to manage capital on all largest exchanges of the world.
Why is there a minimum deposit amount of $ 10,000?
There are several reasons. First, we need funds to maintain client accounts. We do not charge a monthly fee, only a percentage of the profits. Therefore, the size of the deposit has a lower limit.
Second, $10k is not much for our target audience. It also acts as a filter that shows the solvency and how serious the intentions of a potential client are. We do not target the mass market and do not deal with dumping. On the contrary, we provide long-term, high-quality services for those who can afford it.
Third, the robot independently manages risks and simultaneously controls all portfolios. We don’t like it if someone can’t enter the position because the share calculated for him by the robot is not allowed on the exchange due to restrictions.
Are there any differences in the management of different amounts of investment? If yes, what are they and are there any similarities in the management of investments of one quantitative segment?
Our job is to describe all the differences with strict mathematical formulas and test them thousands of times under all possible conditions. Therefore, there is no big difference for us between a 5 mln purchase or 5k purchase. Everything is described, tested, calculated, everything works.
Differences in the management of large capital are even more drastic. The psychological factor in this case becomes critical. The same trader managing a demo account or a million dollar account will behave like two completely different people and make fundamentally different decisions. Our task is to completely eliminate the human factor from the money management process.
What are the chances for new instruments to get into the Foundation’s portfolio? What is the basis of the selection of certain tools? Are there any common priority tools for different segments of investors?
Any promising liquid instrument can be included in the portfolio of the Foundation, and the choice depends on many factors. The robot evaluates and filters the instrument on the basis of special algorithms and determines the share of an asset in the portfolio based on the results of the evaluation. All decisions must be mathematically justified, taking into account the analysis of the maximum possible amount of data. The more data on the instrument we have, the higher the quality of the decisions made and the share of the instrument in the portfolio. The choice does not depend on the category of investor. If the instrument is promising and liquid, all our clients will get profit.
Can you tell more about the terms of settlements between the Foundations and investors?
If someone in our market guarantees you a good profit and even specifies when you could get it, then I in turn guarantee that this is a fraud. We are most interested in customer profits, as this is the only way to offset the costs of managing his account. Imagine the following situation:
The new client opened a 10k deposit and a month later, he had a total of 12k in his account. At the beginning of next month, we will ask you to transfer us 1k as a fee. 11k remains on his account, but a month later, suppose, unsuccessful deals were made and there is 10k on his account again. In this case, we do not require any payments until the deposit exceeds 11k.
Suppose a month later he has 12k again. Then we will charge 50% of the difference between 11k and 12k, i.e. $500. The fact that the entire team of our foundation has long transferred the management of all its assets to our robot could also count as a guarantee. We have a direct motivation to make trading as successful as possible. We do not use the services of other funds or managers. And the second fact is that the portfolios of all clients, including our personal ones, are managed simultaneously.
Can you share the success stories of the Foundation?
We want to implement a demo account for this purpose. We plan to fill it with transactions and statistics from 2017, copied from real accounts, but without disclosing personal data. The demo-account will include a history of the average client from the beginning of 2017.
It will explain how the robot trades and what profit you can expect from it.
Do you believe that private investors, to some extent, are competitors to investment funds? What, in your opinion, is it more efficient and profitable: being a private investor or investing with funds?
No, we consider them not competitors, but clients. The vast majority of our clients already have experience in investing. Beginners often think they are the smartest, that they don’t need to pay someone 50% of the income when they can easily buy and sell themselves. I admit that in the short run a private investor can earn more than a robot — but definitely not over a long period. The robot ensures a stable result day after day, year after year, while people are prone to stress, illness and psychological weakness.
Also, funds, compared with private investors, have more compelling ratio of risk and return. At some time, a private investor may gain the same profit as a fund. However, the fund will achieve the same profit with much less risk. My money is controlled by a robot, although I believe in my capabilities as a trader.
Does the Foundation have an affiliate program?
Yes, we have an affiliate program, and at the same time, we are interested in collaborating with specialists for mutually beneficial cooperation. For example, we could consider providing service for the service for really good experts in design, advertising and marketing. If you have such specialists, let them send me their proposals and CVs. See contact details on our website.
What kind of future do you see for ordinary investment funds and funds like the Mercury Foundation?
It is clear to me that the share of funds managed by robots will grow steadily. Most likely, in a couple of decades only old-timers will manage money manually.
Robotization applies to all spheres of life and investment has already come into play. For example, the head of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund — the world’s largest pension fund — believes that artificial intelligence will soon completely replace asset managers. And I fully agree with him.
And the largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is developing a decision-making algorithm that can replace all management personnel over time.
How do you look at the cryptocurrency market from a global perspective? Will the Bitcoin climb to 20,000$ again? And what will happen to the altcoins?
If we talk about the long term prospect, like 3–5–7–10 years, then I’ll say that today we see the early stage of the cryptocurrency market. Over time, its capitalization will be measured in trillions of dollars. The best projects of this field will become an integral part of our lives. Many of them will become new Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon.
However, this will happen gradually. In order to become a mature sector of the economy, this market will have to go through many challenges. It will face issues of legislative regulation and technical problems. The scaling and bandwidth issues of most networks are still relevant, as well as legal issues. Most states are just beginning to explore the risks and opportunities associated with these technologies. And the promotion of such technologies is still very dependent on states and supranational bodies. If we talk about the short and medium terms, the prospects are not very bright.
I think that in the near future the bitcoin will certainly not reach the 20,000$ mark. We are witnessing the strongest bear market and must act accordingly. The time for positive medium-term forecasts has not yet come. The industry was severely overcrowded in 2017. There was too much hot money, many economically unfeasible projects and excessively high expectations. The market will need time to stabilize and consolidate. Most likely, we are in for a rather complicated and dangerous period of instability in the market. Obviously, this will be accompanied by some cleansing of the market from weak, incompetent and unclaimed participants.
This is a necessary stage on the path towards development. I think that 80% of altcoins known to us will depreciate and disappear in the next year or two for objective reasons. It will be a time of natural selection. However, strong players will only strengthen their positions in the market. Unfortunately, there will not be many of them. Therefore, in the near future, all investors will need to take a good care of the management of their portfolios. Despite the rather grim short-term and medium-term expectations, there will be some positive developments on the market. Some cryptocurrencies are likely to exceed their all-time peaks next year. And some will just look stronger than the market. This will be enough to generate profitability even under such difficult conditions. Therefore, the main task for the near future is to manage risks in a competent and very conservative manner and select the best ones on the market for investments.
From a professional point of view, what would you wish to partners of our club?
Depends on their goals. If they invest for the sake of emotions, then I wish them good luck and health. If they do it to earn money, I advise you to consult with professionals. This applies not only to investments, but also to any area of life. If you want the task to be solved as accurately as possible — always contact the best professionals available. And always keep learning. Your knowledge is your most reliable asset.
What books would you recommend for beginner traders?
If you decide that you are ready to turn trading into your profession, then start eagerly exploring everything available to you. Everything about financial markets, about macroeconomics, about psychology, about analysis and forecasting. Do not forget that money management skills play a huge role here. Ralph Vince will help you figure it out. Even if your analysis of the markets is very good, you will lose everything eventually if your money management skills are subpar. Now is a great time to learn, you have hundreds and thousands of books available on all aspects of this profession. Someone will enjoy the works of John J. Murphy or Jack Schwager, someone will learn from William D. Gann or Robert Prechter. And remember: knowledge is more important than capital!
We thank Alexander for such a detailed story about the Foundation, as well as for his sincere desire to share his opinions and forecasts. If you want to entrust the management of your funds to the Mercury Foundation, type “I want to invest in the Mercury Foundation” in the personal messages of the group.
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